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原标题：美大豆供应前景异常吃紧！CBOT大豆创一年多来最大涨幅来源 | 财联社、oilcn油讯等美国农业部在周一（9月12日）发布的月度作物报告中下调了对美国大豆单产和产量的预测，令市场措手不及，并推高期货价格。

二 |     MILAN -- Italian lawmakers voted unanimously Wednesday to back a long-delayed project to build a Holocaust Museum in Rome, underlining the urgency of the undertaking following the killing of Israeli civilians by Hamas fighters in what have been deemed the deadliest attacks on Jews since the Holocaust.The measure includes 10 million euros ($10.5 million) in funding over three years for construction of the exhibits, and 50,000 euros in annual operational funding to establish the museum, a project that was first envisioned nearly 20 years ago. Recalling the execution of an Israeli Holocaust survivor during the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, lawmaker Paolo Formentini from the right-wing League party told the chamber, "We thought that events of this kind were only a tragic memory. Instead, it is an ancient problem that is reappearing like a nightmare.”The Holocaust Museum project was revived last spring by Premier Giorgia Meloni’s far-right-led government. It languished for years due to bureaucratic hurdles but also what many see as a reluctance to examine the role of Italy’s fascist regime as a perpetrator of the Holocaust.The president of the 16-year-old foundation charged with overseeing the project, Mario Venezia, said Italy’s role in the Holocaust, including the fascist regime’s racial laws excluding Jews from public life, must be central to the new museum. The racial laws of 1938 are viewed as critical to laying the groundwork for the Nazi Holocaust in which 6 million Jews were murdered.Of Italy's 44,500 Jews, 7,680 were killed in the Holocaust, according to the Yad Vashem Museum in Jerusalem. Many were rounded up by the German SS using information provided by Italy’s fascist regime and, according to historians, even ordinary Italians.“Denial has always been part of the history of World War II, taking various insidious forms, from complicit silence to the denial of facts,’’ said Nicola Zingaretti, a Democratic Party lawmaker whose Jewish mother escaped the Oct. 16, 1943 roundup of Roman Jews; his maternal great-grandmother did not and perished in a Nazi death camp. “The Rome museum will therefore be important as an authoritative and vigilant of protector of memory,'' Zingaretti told the chamber before the vote. The city of Rome has identified part of Villa Torlonia, which was the residence of Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini from 1925-43, as the site for the museum, but details were still being finalized, Venezia said.。最新供需预估月报显示，美国大豆产量前景异常悲观。这一消息推升美国大豆期货上涨5.4%，创下一年多来的最大涨幅。

三 | 受报告利好提振，今日（9月13日）国内油脂油料期货开盘全线大涨。美国农业部意外大幅下调大豆产量预期美国农业部的报告显示，由于干旱天气影响大豆作物生长，农业部此次意外大幅下调 2022-23年美国大豆产量和期末库存的预期。农业部在9月月报中写道：2022/2023年度大豆单产预期为50.5蒲式耳/英亩，较8月月报预期的51.9蒲式耳/英亩大幅下调，也低于市场预期的51.5蒲式耳/英亩。美国农业部还将美国2022/2023年度大豆期末库存预期下调至2亿蒲式耳，大幅低于市场预期的2.47亿蒲式耳，也较8月月报预期的2.45亿蒲式耳大幅下调。这一消息推动芝加哥11月大豆期货周一收涨5.4%，报每蒲式耳14.8825美元，为2021年6月底以来的最大涨幅，也是约11周以来的价格新高。“大豆今天抢了风头，”Teucrium Trading高级投资组合策略师杰克·汉利（Jake Hanley）表示，“目前的预期显示，大豆将连续第三个作物季节供不应求。”巴西也不乐观不仅美国的大豆产量前景不佳，大豆的最大生产国巴西的情况也不乐观。由于拉尼娜现象导致天气恶劣，而且这一恶劣天气可能会延续到明年，巴西部分地区的干旱预计将持续恶化，给当地大豆产量前景蒙上阴影。美国StoneX首席大宗商品经济学家阿兰·苏德曼（Arlan Suderman）周一表示，巴西仍能重建全球大豆供应。但前提是天气正常。如果拉尼娜继续影响大豆产量的话，要怎么办？这是终端用户现在必须担心的问题。

四 | ”芝商所12月玉米期货也收涨1.6%，至每蒲式耳6.96美元，创下6月中旬以来新高。

五 | 美国农业部周一还发布了最新的每周作物状况报告，显示美国大豆和玉米的评级均略低于预期。美国农业部还将全球小麦产量预期上调了约400万吨，主要原因是俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量增加。这推动芝商所12月基准小麦价格继续走低。报告利多，上涨动力略显不足中粮期货分析师认为：本次USDA供需报告明显利多，美豆价格在报告发布后由1415美分左右的位置上涨至1485美分。美豆新作供应端的数据意外利多仍将在短期内拉高美豆价格，如果1500美分的位置被突破，价格可能继续上行。但美豆新作天气炒作已经完成，新作出口前景因南美大豆出口的竞争可能存在弱化的可能，价格因报告冲高之后的上涨动力略显不足。后期需要关注宏观美联储加息的情况，以及美豆新作出口的情况，巴西大豆的种植期也即将开始，种植面积的炒作也将逐渐提上日程，连续的拉尼娜天气是否会对新作南美大豆产生影响仍需等待。前海瑞奔稳定供应高性价比菜籽原油、菜粕、豆原油等，货源充足，符合国标，拥有国际第三方认证。更多合作方式与详情请关注VX(Ruiben168168)，或致电0755-26901649。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：