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杭州奥体板块今年密集“商改住” 专家警示：警惕城市公共中心“卧城化”_我的网站

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    The 24th group of the low-orbit internet satellites aboard a Long March-12 carrier rocket is launched at 12:10 pm on August 16, 2026 from a commercial spacecraft launch site in the southern island province of Hainan. Photo: VCG
Two successful launches among China's recent frequent moves caught particular attention of space watchers - the 24th group of low-Earth orbit internet (LEO) satellites aboard a Long March-12 rocket was sent from a commercial spacecraft launch site in the southern island province of Hainan on Sunday, 12 days after the 23rd group of LEO satellites aboard a Long March-8A rocket was launched from the same Hainan site on August 4.
Sunday's mission marked the 663rd launch of the Long March series of carrier rockets, which on Monday sent an SEO satellite into preset orbit, per Xinhua.
Experts said the launches of two groups of LEO satellites within 12 days underlined that China is notably accelerating its pace of building its satellite internet constellation.
"The launch of LEO satellites has now entered a regular and cyclical rhythm, with batches of satellites continuously being sent into orbit at relatively stable intervals," Kang Guohua, a senior member of the Chinese Society of Astronautics and a professor of Aerospace Engineering at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, told the Global Times on Monday.
China launched the first group of LEO internet satellites on December 16, 2024, proceeding to the 24th batch in about 20 months. Kang said three major production and launch "assembly lines" are supporting the effort: satellite factories featuring centralized design in Beijing, coordinated supply chains and mass production; rockets with streamlined launch and testing procedures and multiple configurations; and launch sites capable of supporting routine constellation deployment.
The Long March-12, which played a key role in the latest LEO satellite launch, is China's first 4-meter-class single-core-stage carrier rocket and was specifically developed for commercial launch needs. It is about 62.6 meters long, has a liftoff mass of 430 tons and can carry more than 12 tons to low-Earth orbit. Its first stage is equipped with four 1,250-kilonewton pump-fed liquid oxygen-kerosene engines and uses a newly developed coal-based aerospace kerosene, according to Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology.
The rocket adopts a "three-horizontal" launch preparation model: horizontal assembly, horizontal testing and horizontal transportation. Depending on mission requirements, it can use fairings with diameters of 4.2 or 5.2 meters and support both single-satellite and multi-satellite launches into different orbits.
"This flexibility makes the Long March-12 particularly suitable for the 'one rocket, multiple satellites' model required for constellation deployment, making it one of the main launch vehicles currently used for LEO constellation missions," Kang said.
The mission also highlighted the launch site's growing ability to support high-frequency launches. The rocket took only two and a half days from being transported to the launch area to liftoff, setting a record for the shortest time a rocket occupied the launch position at the site, Kang said.
Despite the rapid progress, experts cautioned that the 228 satellites currently in orbit remain some distance from the ultimate goal. China's satellite internet project has a long-term goal of deploying nearly 8,000 satellites and is now in an accelerated "weaving" phase.
China's advantage lies in its ability to control costs and boost production efficiency once satellite manufacturing reaches mass-production scale, another expert surnamed Liu told the Global Times.
"Whether it is the production capacity of AI centers or the factory in Hainan, which has an annual satellite manufacturing capacity of 1,000 units, satellite production itself is not the problem," Liu said. "More bottlenecks lie in the operational efficiency of launch pads and the rocket payload and recovery technology."
The real challenge lies in rocket reusability. Only by lowering launch costs and increasing launch frequency can China sustain a pace of more than one launch per week. This is also the strategic significance of accelerating the development of reusable rocket technology, including the Long March-10B and privately developed rockets, Kang further noted.
Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Deng Zhongliang previously said in an interview that satellite internet will serve as an indispensable space-time infrastructure for 6G, enabling emerging industries worth trillions of yuan, including the low-altitude economy, advanced autonomous driving and the Internet of Things (IoT).
    The 23rd group of low-orbit internet satellites aboard a Long March-8A carrier rocket is launched on August 4, 2026 from a commercial spacecraft launch site in the southern island province of Hainan. Photo: VCG
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B |     奥体板块 记者 黄煜轩 摄上周，杭州奥体板块又一宗商业用地调整为住宅，这已是该板块今年以来的第四宗“商改住”。住媒体记者观察到，一边是商办租金持续走低，一边是住宅均价逼近10万元/平方米。这种“温差”，让“商改住”成为较快盘活土地、形成收入的现实选择。密集调整之下，难免引发外界担忧，也让不少业主心里疑虑。杭州有规划领域相关专家直言：要警惕奥体板块“卧城化”（卧城指大城市周围承担居住职能的卫星城，其职能以居住为主）。奥体还有多少“最后一宗”？8月7日，杭州市萧山区世纪城核心一宗地启动规划调整公示，由商业用地/商务金融用地调整为二类城镇住宅用地，容积率由6.5降低到2.5，建筑高度由100米降低至80米。公示期至8月17日止。调整原因是“为改善职住平衡与片区宜居性、优化人居环境，提升居住品质”。

C | 这是奥体板块今年第四宗“商改住”地块。此前有三宗已完成规划调整，虽尚未挂牌，但官网显示计划于2026年出让。住媒体记者注意到，在奥体板块，陆续有多个楼盘曾被市场称为“奥体核心区最后一宗宅地”，但目前来看，“最后一宗”的说法，正被反复打破。奥映鸣翠、奥映世纪、天珺、宸云等新盘前身都是商业用地，经规划调整转为住宅，朗云的前身甚至是中小学用地。“最后一宗”与“最后三天”一样，成了反复使用的营销话术？板块宅地供应究竟有无“终点”，或许只有在所有空地开发完毕后才能见分晓。从具体位置看，四宗“商改住”地块均占据奥体核心区位：一块位于地铁6号线/7号线换乘站奥体中心附近，直面杭州奥体博览城、杭州之门。边上有杭州壹号院、嘉品美寓等次新小区，近学军中学教育集团文渊实验小学、文渊中学、学军中学教育集团萧山区文渊实验学校等教育配套。一宗地块位于奥体印象城北侧，与大型商业配套仅一街之隔，距在建地铁15号线合丰路站约400米。一宗紧挨在建的综合体杭州SKP，周边次新房有万科星潮映象府、中海潮展云起、月赋杭城府等。最新调整的这宗地块位于奔竞大道旁、利一家园北侧，距地铁6号线博览中心站约700米，紧邻都会山与时代奥城。目前的奥体板块楼市，新房以高端大户型为主，单价高的如奥映世纪、奥映鸣翠府，均价达8.5万—9万元/平方米。二手房由于房龄和产品差异，价格跨度极大，多数较新房龄的商品房小区参考价格在5.5万—6.5万元/平方米。为什么要“商改住”？“商改住”并非杭州独有。近两年，深圳、上海、武汉、成都等城市均出现过类似调整。住媒体记者采访了杭州规划领域一位业内专家，他分析，“商改住”背后有多重原因：目前商业和商务用地面临开发难、去化慢的问题，甲级写字楼空置率上升、租金下行。杭州奥体中心周边本身商务办公体量就不小，继续保留大量商业用地，容易造成土地闲置或低效开发。与此同时，杭州核心区住宅用地稀缺、去化速度和土地收益明显优于商办。综上因素，地方政府有动力将低效商办用地调整为住宅，既盘活土地，也能较快形成收入。此外，原有控规多编制于快速增长期，进入存量时代后可能会与实际需求脱节，需要动态修正。

D | 从职住平衡角度看，过去部分区域产业、商务比例过高、居住功能不足，也客观存在补短板的需求。但短短两个月内，奥体板块有四宗核心地块密集“商改住”，不仅引发外界的担忧，很多业主心里也犯嘀咕。该规划领域业内人士也有同样担忧：商业用地转住宅，短期确实能导入人口、提升消费活力，但如果调整节奏过快、配套不同步，压力也会集中显现。首先是公共服务承压。人口涌入后，对教育、医疗、养老等资源的需求迅速攀升，而奥体周边这些资源本就不多，新增住宅只会让供需矛盾更加突出。其次是商业服务空间被挤压。地都拿去盖了住宅，未来可用于商业、办公、文化和社区服务的空间相应减少，人住进来了，服务供给却跟不上，出现新的“错配”。第三是城市形象可能走样。奥体是杭州的“门面”，沿主干路、沿江界面一旦从公建改成住宅，建筑形态和公共开放性势必发生变化，若缺乏管控，片区气质将大打折扣。第四是市场信心容易动摇。

E | 短时间密集调整，容易让市场认为该片区产业和商业定位不稳定，影响长期投资信心，对已经按原规划购入住宅的业主来说，也可能造成预期落差。

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Published on:10:04:23